Mathematical Models and Theories of War in the Information Age

A key feature of the social, behavioural, and biological sciences after World War II has been the widespread adoption of new mathematical techniques drawn from cybernetics, information theory, game theory and theories of rational choice. The aim of this book is to describe the application of these developments to conflict modelling, principally through the development of a set of agent-based representations which have formed the basis of advice to the governments on a wide range of key decisions in the arena of defence and security. Specific examples have ranged from the predicted casualty cost of aiding the US during Gulf War 1, to equipment choices such as whether to buy two new aircraft carriers for the Royal Navy. These major equipment decisions are set within the context of a set of future scenarios and at the most demanding end of the spectrum include conflicts which have entangled complexity and reflect the societal transformation enabled by information networks.

Representing this transformation led to the incorporation of Artificial Intelligence (AI) in modelling of future warfare scenarios. In this book the author describes the development of these mathematical-physics based models of AI and complexity. These are our best current best guesses concerning the future of war. We have tested these theories in the normal way for scientific analysis by comparing them with real data such as that drawn from the detailed archives held by governments.

This book pulls together a number of existing peer-reviewed and other publications into a single comprehensive and compelling narrative and consists of two parts. Part 1 describes the transition from Industrial Age war planning and doctrine during the Cold War to the concept of agile and adaptive forces for the Information Age. It will then cover the development of AI to represent the decisions made by military commanders at both the operational and tactical level, based on the information available to them. The effect of improved sensors, electronic warfare (electronic denial of information) and stealth can then be given their rightful place in the capability mix and programming for acquisition, as part of the enveloping Equipment Plan.

Part 2 discusses and defines the nature of complexity in terms of renormalisation theory and fractal dynamics validating this approach by showing evidence for complexity and fractal dynamics in modern wars such as Operation Enduring Freedom in Afghanistan. It then introduces the topic of Extremal Modelling before concluding in a chapter which applies all of these ideas, including Cybernetics, AI, Complexity and Extremal Modelling to a tactical level model of future war called SIMBAT and discuss validation of its predictions.

This book is needed as a coherent reference for all those fellow scientists, mathematicians and engineers developing tools and models or wanting an understanding of mathematical modelling of complex and evolving scenarios.